Scottish #Independence. Time to be serious.
I’ve always kept this blog for mountaineering topics but the importance of the upcoming vote justifies breaking the mould. The final catalyst to speak up has been the defection today of Tory MP Douglas Carswell to UKIP.
To me the vote comes down to culture; the social and economic outlook of the people I live with. After 21 years of living north of the border, I like Scotland. I’m sure there are other parts of the UK with an equally good case but Scotland has an opportunity to do something about it.
Political change is a natural, inevitable cycle in human nature and today’s political event, to me, summed up why I want my future to be in the hands of those closer to home. Right-wing tories moving further right to UKIP (BNP_in_disguise?) reflects a political direction as far from my own as imaginable in the UK. In a referendum on whether to stay in the EU a 100%, 4 million person, Scottish vote for staying in Europe wouldn’t scratch the surface of the UK result and yet only one seat was won by UKIP in the whole of Scotland in recent local elections.
In order to understand why there is so much conflicting information remember that a huge amount of negotiation is going to happen after the vote before full independence in 2016. This is a referendum on where the cards are going to sit at the table. At this moment both sides are in full political mode with the main game being to undermine the other; that’s what politicians do. I’ve tried to bypass the mire and stick to some logical truths.
Oil & other assetts
We’ve just gone to war in Iraq and Afganistan fundamentally over oil. Eastern Europe is unstable and I can only see the value of safe Scottish oil increasing and every last drop being extracted. Scotland also has a wealth of other assets to sell. I can only comment with any authority on tourism and whisky but both are industries on a major upsurge.
Negotiations at all levels will be intense with both sides wanting the best deal. What I am convinced about is that rUK does not want a 3rd world economy next door so I don’t fear impending poverty. I also know who I would back in a poker game between Salmond & Cameron.
If the banks & goverment in rUK create problems with Scotland keeping the pound it would be economic vandalism against their own biggest (2nd?) trading nation with stupid repurcusions at home. Darling dropped a clanger by admitting there was nothing to stop it in the last debate. What is interesting is that we would be tied to the success or failure of the pound and rUK. The only conclusion I can make is that this common interest should act as a stabaliser between the countries.
Part of how I will measure wealth on my death bed will be the richness of far more than money. I want health, education and damn good facilities at the retirement home! I do expect to pay more tax to get what I want but the levels we pay will be more fairly balanced between rich & poor.
Can it work?
We have an enviable infrastructure in place already and many assetts to generate income. Maintaining this and budgeting for alterations in spending are all part of the negotiations that have yet to take place. Undoubtedly there will be highs and lows in the years to come but the risks are no greater than staying put in the UK and the potential benefits are far greater.
I’ve long thought that “letting our boys join the British Army” is one of the concessions Salmond may make. Too simplistic possibly but fundamentally I still see there being Scottish soldiers, sailors & airforce personnel in Scotland and overseas. Trident could be a huge problem to sort out and 5.5 years (currently proposed schedule) may well turn out to be 20 but it is far less likely that a new era of nuclear weapons will end up in Scotland and even less likley to be out of the Scottish budget.
So far the best thing I’ve witnessed is that the referendum has created conversation and debate. For over 2 years visitors have been shaken by the intensity of discussion going on in all circles of Scottish life. People young and old are interested in politics again. Modern life had become increasingly antisocial with opinions being shaped & formed by whatever the powers decided to release to our mobiles and laptops; Big brother’s perfect scenario. Whatever Scots vote for they will have chosen based on talking with those around them at least as much as what they have heard through the media. That interest in politics won’t subside quickly and the future of Scottish politics is bright.
South of the Border
The implications for rUK are big and I’m sure there will be political activity sparked as a result. I hope the result will be a similar rise in interest and political direction, inspired by a Scottish example that things can change. Talk of passports and borders is the worst spin from the No camp of the whole campaign. Its not just for currency reasons that Scotland will still retain a major interest in getting on well with its neighbours.
We hear about fighting for independence every day in the news but peacefully negotiated independence from a sovereign state is a privelege that incredibly few people in this world will ever get. You only get one life, seize your chance to do something positive about it. Bring the decisions made closer to home, to the people around you. Most importantly make sure you get out and vote but, on a personal note, please vote Yes.